North County Inland May 2013 Select a different neighborhood, city or county Trends At A Glance May 2013 Previous Month Year-over Year Median Home Price +1.1%$470,000 $465,000 +25.3%$375,000 Average Sales Price +1.7%$547,023 $537,792 +24.7%$438,845 No. of Homes Sold +8.5%806 743 +0.4%803 Pending Properties +1.2%1135 1122 +6.8%1063 Foreclosures Sold -21.3%37 47 -72.8%136 Short Sales Sold -10.0%45 50 -57.5%106 Active Listings +7.6%1808 1680 -29.4%2561 Active Foreclosures -2.0%48 49 -68.6%153 Active Short Sales -3.9%222 231 -60.4%560 Sales Price vs. List Price 0.0%99.2% 99.3% +1.4%97.9% Average Days on Market -3.8%47 49 -37.6%76 Market MomentumEnlarge Graph Graph loading... North County Inland: Home Price Surge to Moderate Last month we saw that the decline in the number of distressed home sales, bank-owned and short sales, has been the main driver in the recent surge of prices. What we didn’t explain was why there were so few distressed property sales. When the market was reaching its nadir in 2009, institutional investors poured in with big money and purchased bulk foreclosed properties from the bank, which they then turned around and rented. That’s why the “shadow inventory” every pundit was trumpeting a few years ago never appeared. Well, guess what? Those same investors are now fleeing the market. According to Businessweek’s interview with Bruce Rose, hedge fund manager and one of the first to put money into buying bank-owned property, “we just don’t see the returns there that are adequate to incentivize us to continue to invest.” What does that mean for the rest of us? First, we’ll be seeing more bank-owned properties come to market. Second, price increases should moderate. According to http://propertyradar.com, there are 2,734 properties owned by the banks in San Diego County. In the MLS, there are only 236 bank-owned properties on the market. For buyers, this is good news. The surge in prices should start slowing down to single-digits. We expect this to happen by the end of the summer. May Market Statistics Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 1% year-over-year. Home sales had been higher than the year before for twenty-three straight months. Inventory remains problematic. There is only a nine week supply. The median price was up 23.8% year-over-year. Sales momentum… for homes rose 1.9 points to +11.3. Condo sales momentum rose 0.6 of a point to +4.2. Pricing momentum… made another solid gain last month, rising 1.5 points to +11.6. Condo pricing momentum gained 1.6 points to +18.6. We Calculate… momentum by using a 12-month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year's 12-month moving average to last year's, we get a percentage showing market momentum. Condo Statistics… The median price for condos was up 34.4% year-over-year. That’s eleven months in a row the median price has risen by double-digits. Sales were up 4.1% from last May. The sales price to list price ratio for condos rose to 100.9%. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It’s important to be calm and realistic. If you don’t know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let’s discuss your situation and your options. Prices & SalesEnlarge Graph Graph loading.. Sales BreakdownEnlarge Graph Graph loading.. Days of InventoryEnlarge Graph Graph loading.. Sales To DateEnlarge Graph Graph loading.. Sale Price RatioEnlarge Graph Graph loading..